The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

Also in today’s newsletter, Canada’s Carney prepares to take on Trump, and China’s copper stockpiles set to run out

The United States and China are unlikely to see a rapid hit to their credit ratings from a trade war, S&P Global's top sovereign analyst has said, with damage more likely concentrated on poorer countries and those already on downgrade warnings.