To our surprise, the US economy has not entered a recession over the past two years. This is not because a recession has been avoided altogether but because the current economic cycle has been ...

In our last article, we explored the broader framework that underpins our process for tracking the Business Cycle — the EPB Four Economy Framework. (Click here to read the previous post) In that ...

As the U.S. economy shrinks, fears and predictions of a recession continue to grow. New Commerce Department data shows that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at an annual rate of 0 ...

Business-cycle signals can inform ETF tilts, but on their own cannot reliably time markets. Sector and factor leadership has historically varied across cycles, with growth-focused leading in ...