While President Trump has a list of five finalists for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, he said last week that he thinks he knows who he'll pick. "I think I already know my choice," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office regarding who will replace outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell,

What was once seen as a near-certain cut in interest rates next month now looks more like a coin flip as Federal Reserve officials sharply disagree over the economy’s health and whether stubborn inflation or weak hiring represent a bigger threat.

Because the number of meetings has changed over time and the FOMC does not always have 12 voters, I have collated the annual dissent rate in the chart below. The Fed generally reaches consensus, with only 15 per cent of voters dissenting in the peak year of disagreement in 1979. That is the equivalent of a 10-to-two vote.

Investors have largely been focused on the likelihood of a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve, as well as the chances of further easing in 2026. But there's another move by the central bank that may be on the way in January.

Adriana Kugler, a former governor on the Federal Reserve board who suddenly stepped down from her role, violated the bank’s trading rules, a report said.

The reported frontrunner to take over as Federal Reserve chair in May has a recent track record of advocating for the central bank lowering interest rates.

In September, Trump said his top three candidates were Hassett, former Fed official Kevin Warsh, and current governor Christopher Waller.

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Brian Domitrovic is a historian of supply-side economics The eminent national pastime of trashing the Federal Reserve has a distinguished pedigree in American history. Maybe one time ...