The Irrelevant Investor
4 days ago · My Biggest Takeaway From the Election. Your Brain is Undefeated. Michael Batnick. Nov 06, 2024.
A Few Thoughts On the Selloff - The Irrelevant Investor
Michael Batnick. August 05, 2024. The stock market hit an all-time high last month. The rally was broadening out, and economic data and inflation were cooling, giving the Fed the green light to begin its long-anticipated cutting cycle. The VIX was low, and credit spreads were tight. And then boom, a powder keg of risk exploded out of nowhere.
The Thing that Doesn’t Mix Well With Investing - The Irrelevant …
Apr 16, 2024 · The Thing that Doesn’t Mix Well With Investing. There was a further escalation in Israel over the weekend. It always feels a bit crass to talk about investing when lives are being lost, but part of what I do is help investors contextualize awful world events. Intuitively, you might think that geopolitical events would impact the market.
10 Predictions For 2023
Jan 2, 2023 · It’s hard to supply the market with risky assets when there is little appetite for risk. Gold makes a new all-time high. It’s hard to believe, but gold hasn’t outpaced inflation since 1980. Real returns will stay below their peak, but nominal ones don’t. Gold breaks out and makes a …
How Lies Spread - The Irrelevant Investor
May 23, 2024 · 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing. 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
I'm Not Saying Things Aren't Crazy - The Irrelevant Investor
Jun 11, 2024 · The fundamental growth is crazy. The valuation isn’t insane. I’m sorry it just isn’t. The stock trades at 44x forward earnings, which isn’t cheap, but it’s nothing compared to Cisco in 1999, which got as high as 97x forward earnings. This chart shows how out of whack the Nasdaq-100 got in the late 90s compared to the earnings it was ...
Is Nvidia too Big to Fail? - The Irrelevant Investor
May 28, 2024 · No, but seriously, it's really big. Michael Batnick. May 28, 2024. Nvidia reported earnings last Wednesday. In the three sessions since, as of this writing, it has added $484 billion in market cap, or one UnitedHealth Group ($465B). UNH doesn’t get a lot of love because health insurance isn’t a sexy business to talk about.
History Has Not Been Kind to the Kings - The Irrelevant Investor
Sep 4, 2024 · In it, he said, “Nvidia bears no resemblance to dot-com market leaders like Cisco (see below) whose P/E multiple also soared but without earnings to go with it.”. The margins, the growth, the revisions, oh my. But the thing is, we all know how great Nvidia is. It’s the king of the market, and history has not been kind to the kings.
Why Investors Love Being Scared - The Irrelevant Investor
May 14, 2024. It’s hard to believe that I’ve been writing online for over a decade. WordPress has been a wonderful home to more than 2,000 posts (Proud of those units). It’s been a hell of a run, but it’s time to move onto bigger and better things. I’m switching to Beehiv to improve how we (the Royal) interact with our readers ...
Why Wasn’t there a Recession? - The Irrelevant Investor
Jan 2, 2024 · Almost 90% of S&P 500 debt is long-term fixed, which is why net interest costs didn’t go up with interest rates. Paradoxically, thanks to all the cash on the balance sheets actually earning something, net interest costs went down! Maybe those calling for a recession in 2023 were just early. Time will tell.